In today’s rapidly evolving AI landscape, organizations rely on accurate, well-calibrated forecasting more than ever before. From predicting technological milestones to anticipating global socio-economic trends, expert forecasters have become essential. If you’re an experienced forecaster with a proven track record, Mercor—a San Francisco–based platform supported by world-class investors—has opened a rare, highly paid remote opportunity that aligns perfectly with your skills.
This article explores the role, responsibilities, qualifications, and application process for Mercor’s Superforecaster position. Whether you’re an expert in probabilistic reasoning or someone who has excelled in forecasting tournaments, this might be the flexible, high-impact opportunity you’ve been waiting for.
About Mercor: A Global Hub for Elite Talent
Mercor connects top creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs across the globe. What sets Mercor apart is its strong backing from influential investors such as:
- Benchmark
- General Catalyst
- Peter Thiel
- Adam D’Angelo
- Larry Summers
- Jack Dorsey
With such a powerful network, Mercor acts as a bridge that helps organizations solve complex challenges by assembling some of the most capable minds in forecasting, AI, engineering, and related fields.
The Superforecaster role is one of their most impactful and specialized positions—perfect for experts who excel in analytical depth, data-driven reasoning, and unbiased prediction accuracy.
Position Overview: Superforecaster (Remote)
- Type: Independent Contractor
- Compensation: $140–$245 per hour
- Work Hours: 10–20 hours per week
- Location: Fully remote
- Flexibility: Work asynchronously and independently
This role is structured for professionals who thrive in flexible environments, value autonomy, and bring thought leadership to forecasting in high-stakes domains.
Role Responsibilities
As a Superforecaster at Mercor, you will play a critical role in shaping how organizations understand the future. Your insights will contribute to benchmarking, evaluation systems, and AI-assisted predictions.
Here’s what you’ll be doing:
1. Create Evidence-Backed Forecasts
You will deliver accurate and calibrated forecasts on complex, real-world questions, ranging from global economic trends to technological developments.
2. Document Rationale and Methodology
Your forecasts must be backed by clear, structured explanations. This includes:
- Key sources
- Analytical reasoning
- Probabilistic analysis
- Forecasting models or frameworks used
Clarity and structure are essential parts of this role.
3. Collaborate with Peer Forecasters
You will participate in peer review and collaborate with other forecasters to refine predictions. Collective refinement improves accuracy and strengthens the overall forecasting output.
4. Evaluate AI-Generated Forecasts
A key aspect of the role involves comparing human predictions with AI-generated forecasts. This includes scoring, benchmarking, and analyzing the performance gap.
5. Advise on Prompt and Scoring Frameworks
You will also contribute to developing prompt-quality standards, resolution criteria, and scoring methodologies that help refine the forecasting workflow.
Qualifications: Are You the Right Fit?
Mercor is looking for experienced forecasters who have a proven record of accuracy and calibration over several years.
Here’s what you must have:
✔ Recognized Affiliation with a Forecasting Organization
Examples include:
- Good Judgment Project (GJP)
- Swift Centre
- Rethink Priorities Forecasting Initiative (RFI)
- Institute for the Future (IIF)
These affiliations demonstrate your credibility and forecasting history.
✔ Multiple Years of Proven Forecasting Accuracy
Candidates must show consistent performance, ideally with measurable forecasting scores and benchmarks.
✔ Experience in Public or High-Stakes Forecasting Tournaments
This includes platforms such as:
- Good Judgment Open
- Metaculus
- Global challenges forecasting competitions
Such experience reflects your ability to perform well under real-world conditions.
✔ Strong Analytical & Written Communication Skills
The role requires deep analytical thinking and excellent documentation quality.
✔ Ability to Work Independently & Asynchronously
You must be comfortable contributing remotely without needing constant feedback or direction.
This position is specifically aimed at high-performing individuals who bring both expertise and precision to every forecast they make.
Compensation and Legal Details
- This is a 1099-style independent contractor role.
- Payment ranges from $140 to $245 per hour, depending on experience, performance, and scope of work.
- The remote nature of the job enables global participation while maintaining flexibility.
This level of compensation signals both the seriousness and the value Mercor places on elite forecasting talent.
Application Process (Only 20–30 Minutes)
Mercor has a streamlined yet thorough application procedure. Here’s what to expect:
Step 1: Submit Your Mercor Profile or Resume
This initiates the screening process.
Step 2: Complete a Short Form
This helps the team understand your background, forecasting experience, and relevant credentials.
Step 3: Stay Tuned for Follow-Up
You will receive updates within a few days outlining the next steps.
Mercor encourages candidates to complete all AI interview and application tasks to be fully considered for the role.
Support & Resources
Before applying, you can explore more details about the interview process and platform features here:
🔗 https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome/welcome
If you need help along the way, contact:
Mercor’s hiring team reviews applications daily, so completing your steps promptly ensures faster processing.
Why This Role Is a Rare Opportunity
Becoming a Superforecaster with Mercor offers several benefits:
- Exceptional pay
- Remote flexibility
- Work with elite AI labs
- Engage in high-impact forecasting
- Collaborate with top global forecasters
- Contribute to shaping future predictions used by major organizations
If you’re a forecasting expert, this role allows you to leverage your analytical skillset while shaping the advancement of human-AI collaboration.
Apply Now
If this high-paying, flexible, remote role excites you, apply using the link below: